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How to make the right decision when investing in Real Estate. Part 3 (Confirmation bias)

Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look for information that supports, rather than rejects, one’s preconceptions, typically by interpreting evidence to confirm existing beliefs while rejecting or ignoring any conflicting data (American Psychological Association).

People exhibiting this bias are likely to seek out, interpret, remember, and give more weight to evidence that supports their views while ignoring, dismissing, or undervaluing the relevance of evidence that contradicts them.

If you were to search “Are cats better than dogs?” in Google, all you would get are sites listing the reasons why cats are better.

This shows that phrasing questions in a one-sided way (i.e., affirmative manner) will assist you in obtaining evidence consistent with your hypothesis.

Types of confirmation bias

  • Selective search.
  • Selective interpretation.
  • Selective recall.

Types of confirmation bias in real estate in Kenya.

  1. You believe that treasury bonds and bills are the safest investments and will outperform all other types of investments.
  2. You believe that land appreciation is a myth and that it is impossible to sell your property.
  3. You believe that you will get conned when investing in real estate.
  4. You believe that one way of saving when developing real estate is to avoid paying professionals.
  5. You believe in the traditional real estate markets (e.g. Industries are only built in Industrial area or apartments in Kileleshwa) and completely ignore the shift (e.g. warehouses in Tatu city, Northlands and Tilisi (Limuru) and Apartments in Tatu city).
  6. You believe that a big house for you to live in and bring up your children is a waste because the kids will grow up and leave you in an empty nest.
  7. You are single and you are afraid to buy a house because you will have raised the bar too high for your prospective spouse.
  8. Your parents are retired and there is no money for basic needs but they will not sell their house or land to take care of themselves in their sunset years.
  9. You have land or want to buy land in the “middle of nowhere” just to have a title deed in your name.
  10. You believe that taking a mortgage is a “life sentence” even with the negotiated mortgages by your employer or Kenya Mortgage Refinance Company.

How to Reduce Confirmation Bias.

According to impact.economist.com, the hardest thing about defeating confirmation bias is that it requires someone to challenge their own logic, which is easier said than done. The simplest way to avoid confirmation bias is to look at a belief you hold, and search out ways in which you’re wrong, rather than the ways in which you’re right. It’s of paramount importance to listen to all sides and carefully consider them before coming to a conclusion. And, having reached a conclusion, we need to continue reassessing whether our conclusion is correct as new information becomes available. You don’t need to compromise your values and beliefs to open your mind to other ideas. Entertaining another idea doesn’t mean accepting it. Just try to look at the alternative to a belief you hold and see the viewpoint of the other side. It’s here that you can begin the fight against confirmation bias.

Next we will talk about Prediction.

We have plots (e.g. Oaklands and Kijani Ridge) and apartments (e.g. Unity Homes) for sale and warehouses to let in a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) (e.g. Samtech Business Park, North Gate) and in an Export Processing Zone (EPZ) (e.g. Africa Logistics Properties ALP in Tilisi). You can also choose from more properties in Tatu City, Ruiru, Nairobi and other parts of Kenya.

Lets talk +254 723 477035 or email info@kariukiwaweru.com

Valuer Kariùki, MRICS

Registered & Practicing Valuer & Estate Agent, Kenya.

Chartered Valuation Surveyor. Global

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